Yesterday, it was reported that the Pakistani Minister for Minorities (a Cabinet-level position in Pakistan’s government) was shot by gunmen yesterday thought to be Muslim extremists. This follows the assassination of a Pakistani governor in early January, also by Muslim extremists. In the first case, the Minister was a Christian and in the case of the governor, a Muslim. They both had criticized the country’s blasphemy laws and suggested their removal or amendment. These killings follow years of harassment, persecution and violence against those accused under Pakistan’s blasphemy laws. [Read more...]
Feb
28
Arab Revolutions: Changing the Guard, Business as Usual
The Arab World, as (nearly) everyone has seen, has been engulfed by popular revolutions, some successful (as in Egypt and Tunisia). Publics in a variety of different Arab countries have risen up against autocratic and dictatorial rules, fighting for rights long denied to them by a corrupt and manipulative leadership.
Jan
25
Egypt’s Day of Protest
Today, tens of thousands of Egyptians went into the streets to protest against the Mubarak led-regime. Seemingly inspired by the success of a populist revolution in Tunisia, the participants in this protest were organized on the internet using social media. Police were deployed against the protesters, but according to al-Sharq al-Awsat, they showed abnormal restraint. The protests were also spread out in multiple places across the capital and reportedly in other Egyptian cities also, giving the police and security forces less of a chance to brutally crack down on them. (Interestingly enough, the protests came on a day set aside for honoring the Egyptian police forces.)
Egyptians on the "Day of Protest" in Cairo
Jan
25
The Hizbullah Takeover Begins
New Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati
Today, we read that Najib Mikata was chosen as Lebanon’s Prime Minister, instead of the previous leader of the Sunni Lebanese parliamentary bloc and previous Prime Minister, Sa’ad Hariri. Mikata was chosen by a majority of the Parliament, led by the March 8 (Hizbullah-allied) group. In response, Sunnis across the country were encouraged to protest in a “day of rage” against their perceived slight.
(NOTE: for those that aren’t familiar with Lebanese political rules, the law mandates that the President must be a Christian, the Prime Minister–where the power lies–a Sunni, and the Speaker of the Parliament a Shi’ite. This arrangement dates from the 1943 National Pact in an attempt to avoid sectarian strife over political appointments).
Jan
24
The Palestine Papers–Real or Not?
Last night, the Palestine Papers were leaked (from where is not clear) by al-Jazeera. This collection, as reported, has over 1600 secret documents detailing negotiations between the Israelis and Palestinians over the past years.
These documents, revealed in a very -Wikileaks way, were obtained by al-Jazeera through an unnamed source. Al-Jazeera says in their introduction to the collection that they cannot reveal who or how they came into possession of the papers, but the paper can vouch for their authenticity.
Jan
19
Hizbullah Ups the Ante
In a recent post, I discussed what I thought were Hizbullah’s goal(s) in pulling out of Lebanon’s government. While I was unsure of whether this was grab for power (a thought shared by most analysts), I did think that Hizbullah was making a grab, legally, for more power.
Today, we discover that Hizbullah members were seen around Beirut in recent days, unarmed, carrying radios and talking to each other (called “practicing for a coup? by Ha’aretz). CNN reports that in some cases, these gatherings had up to 30 people. This comes after Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah warned his political opponents against acting against the movement and officials in the organization claimed that “the next steps” in Hizbullah’s political plans were already underway. Furthermore, also according to the CNN report, this “drill” came during a meeting between Turkish, Qatari and Lebanese government officials aiming at relieving the tension in Lebanon. [Read more...]
Jan
19
The Decline of the Arabs–or so we’re told
Jordanians protesting the economic situation
The revolution in Tunisia, now almost a week old, seems to have the Middle East and the Arab world abuzz. Arab media is reporting that various Arab governments are afraid of the spillover of popular resentment toward ruling regimes. At the same time, analysts are predicting places to which the revolution could spread: Foreign Policy lists 5 candidates (Algeria, Egypt, Sudan, Libya, and Jordan); Daniel Pipes notes that fallout affects both neighboring Arab states and Europe; and I noted 4 possible candidates. Others, while acknowledging that fellow Arab states are concerned, don’t think the revolution is likely to carry over to other places: noted Jordan scholar Laurie Brand says Jordan is unlikely to follow the Tunisians path; and Barry Rubin claims that this shock ranks far below that of the end of the Cold War or the overthrow of Saddam by the U.S. in 2003. [Read more...]
Jan
16
Other Opinions on the Impact of Tunisia’s Revolution
In my post yesterday, I predicted some of the possible places that could face a similar situation as happened in Tunisia, including possible Arab countries that could fall victim to a similar scenario.
Some experts and news analysis have had a mixed view on the matter. Here’s a sampling of various opinions:
1) Joshua Landis says, in contrast to my opinion, that such a overthrow is unlikely in Syria. He says that the Tunisia revolution happened in part because the elite of the country splintered and turned on each other, making the disintegration of the ruling regime very easy. Such a scenario is less likely in Syria (where the elite is mostly Alawite and united in an effort to defend itself). Also, the homogeneity of the people made it easy for splits to happen. In Syria, Landis says, the fear of civil war along religious lines will prevent a situation similar to Tunisia. And ultimately (in a quote I like), the “Syrian intelligence and military forces will shoot and stand by the president.” [Read more...]
Jan
15
The Impact of Tunisia’s “Revolution”
Tunisian Protestors outside the Interior Ministry (NY Times)
Over the weekend, as many news outlets reported, the President of Tunisia fled the country in the face of massive protests in the streets. While I have only followed the headlines in a cursory way and haven’t read into the roots causes that much (not being an expert in Maghreb politics), it would seem that the events in Tunisia are particularly poignant for the region as a whole. The root causes of the protests–unemployment and poor job prospects for college graduates (wait, haven’t we heard that before in the Middle East?), corruption from the ruling establishment and a long-time dictator ruling with an iron first–are seemingly present in many other countries. (Also, remember that the scenario in Iran in in the years leading up to 1979 and the Islamic revolution were a lot like this.) [Read more...]
Jan
13
Hizbullah’s Moves in Lebanon: Future Implications for Islamist Movements
In a recent blog post about Hizbullah’s intentions in withdrawing from the Lebanese government and thus causing its collapse, I argued that this might be their attempt to institute the Islamic order they advocate in their ideology.
However, beyond the intentions and implications for Lebanon, it is also important to consider what Hizbullah’s moves might mean for the greater Middle East and for Islamist movements throughout the Middle East (and arguably the entire Islamic world). [Read more...]