Today, tens of thousands of Egyptians went into the streets to protest against the Mubarak led-regime. Seemingly inspired by the success of a populist revolution in Tunisia, the participants in this protest were organized on the internet using social media. Police were deployed against the protesters, but according to al-Sharq al-Awsat, they showed abnormal restraint. The protests were also spread out in multiple places across the capital and reportedly in other Egyptian cities also, giving the police and security forces less of a chance to brutally crack down on them. (Interestingly enough, the protests came on a day set aside for honoring the Egyptian police forces.)
Egyptians on the "Day of Protest" in Cairo
In a recent post, I noted that Egypt might be a prime candidate for a Tunisian-style revolt. It has many of the same characteristics of Tunisia: poor economic situation with massive unemployment, a dictator who has been serving for decades and corrupt government. In Egypt’s case, the situation could potentially be much worse, as they have a much larger population, a well-organized and easy-to-mobilize opposition in the Muslim Brotherhood and less modernization than in Tunisia. In the days following the overthrow of the Tunisian president, the Egyptians did seem inspired, with a number of people trying to spark protests by lighting themselves on fire (in the same manner as the Tunisian man did who sparked all of the events in Tunisia).
However, in reading the reports from Cairo, I personally don’t think that the situation has reached the same proportions as Tunisia. The police did act forcefully, and the protests to appear to have been broken up with minimal difficulties (although 3 people have been reported dead). The key aspect here, at least in my opinion, is that the security forces (which are quite formidable in Egypt) appear to be squarely on the side of the regime. Although their initial response was restraint, probably in an attempt to allow the people to let off some steam in protest, they appear not to have wavered when it came time to suppress the demonstrations.
However, this is an area to watch in the upcoming days and weeks. If protests continue to happen and grown, and even escalate, will the security forces side with the regime or with the people. As Barry Rubin noted, if the regime loses the support of the security services, the end could be near for them.
RELATED: If you want a little humor on the Egyptian protestors, As’ad Abu Khalil at the Angry Arab News Service noted that the protestors were chanting “Mubarak, Mubarak,the Saudis are waiting for you” (in reference to their taking in deposed Tunisian president Ben Ali).
