In my post yesterday, I predicted some of the possible places that could face a similar situation as happened in Tunisia, including possible Arab countries that could fall victim to a similar scenario.

Some experts and news analysis have had a mixed view on the matter.  Here’s a sampling of various opinions:

1) Joshua Landis says, in contrast to my opinion, that such a overthrow is unlikely in Syria. He says that the Tunisia revolution happened in part because the elite of the country splintered and turned on each other, making the disintegration of the ruling regime very easy. Such a scenario is less likely in Syria (where the elite is mostly Alawite and united in an effort to defend itself). Also, the homogeneity of the people made it easy for splits to happen. In Syria, Landis says, the fear of civil war along religious lines will prevent a situation similar to Tunisia. And ultimately (in a quote I like), the “Syrian intelligence and military forces will shoot and stand by the president.” [Read more...]